Research on the Garch Model Based on Ant Colony Algorithm in the Forecast of the Rmb-Usd Exchange Rate

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority was forced to step into the currency markets again yesterday as the Hong Kong dollar hit the limit of its trading band against its US counterpart.

香港金融管理局（HKMA）昨日被迫再度干预汇市，原因是港元兑美元汇率触及交易区间的上限。

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The data suggested that the Federal Reserve may not be so keen to cut US interest rates aggressively, and the dollar rallied a factor that should weaken commodity markets.

上述数据显示，美联储（fed）可能不会那么热衷于大幅降息，同时美元汇率有所反弹，这一因素应该会导致大宗商品市场走弱。

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The yen touched a three-month low of y97 against the dollar.

日元兑美元汇率触及1美元兑97日元的3个月低点。

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At one point the rouble hit a record low of 53.86 to the dollar-a move of 6.5 per cent, according to Reuters data-though it later pared some of its losses.

根据路透（Reuters）数据，卢布兑美元汇率一度触及1美元兑53.86卢布的创纪录低点，跌幅达6.5%，尽管随后收复了部分失地。

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You might start getting worried that the dollar might go down.

你就可能担心美元汇率会下降。

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The Chinese currency has appreciated by 7 per cent against the US dollar this year.

今年以来，人民币兑美元升值幅度达7%。

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This month the Chinese currency fell to its lowest level versus the dollar since 2012.

本月，人民币兑美元汇率跌至2012年以来的最低水平。

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The renminbi remains 15 per cent cheaper against the dollar than it was in 1993.

与1993年的水平相比，人民币兑美元仍贬值了15%。

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The currency has become more flexible and appreciated about 20 per cent against the dollar.

汇率弹性有所增强，人民币兑美元已升值约20%。

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It has only allowed the renminbi to appreciate minimally against the dollar this year.

今年迄今，中国仅允许人民币兑美元微幅升值。

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On balance, I expect the outcome to be a modest appreciation against the dollar.

总体而言，我预计结果将是人民币兑美元适度升值。

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In nominal terms, it has risen 31 per cent against the dollar since 2005.

自2005年以来，人民币兑美元名义汇率已上涨31%。

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China is likely to resume gradual appreciation against the dollar at some point this year.

中国很可能会在今年的某个时候，重启人民币兑美元逐步升值的进程。

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In August, the renminbi even depreciated slightly against the dollar.

今年8月，人民币兑美元甚至略有贬值。

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But from last December, the renminbi has moved less predictably against the dollar.

但从去年12月开始，人民币兑美元汇率的走势就不那么好预测了。

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Owen gallimore, Asia credit analyst at ANZ, reckons the recent decline is a "temporary phenomenon" and that the market will come "roaring back" as soon as investors regain confidence that the renminbi will strengthen sharply against the dollar.

澳新银行（anz）亚洲信贷分析师欧文加利莫尔（owen gallimore）认为，近期的下跌是一种“暂时现象”，一旦投资者开始重新相信人民币兑美元将大幅升值，市场将“强势反弹”。

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The renminbi has repeatedly set new highs against the dollar in recent months.

最近几个月，人民币兑美元汇率屡创新高。

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But the pace of appreciation has slowed sharply over the last two months.

但过去两个月，人民币兑美元的升值速度明显放缓。

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Analysts expect the renminbi to continue its rise against the US currency.

分析人士预测，人民币兑美元还会继续上涨。

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Goldman Sachs predicts Beijing will widen the daily trading band within which the renminbi fluctuates against the dollar from plus or minus 0.5 per cent to plus or minus 1 per cent and then allow it to gradually rise.

高盛（goldman sachs）预计，北京方面将把人民币兑美元汇率波动的每日交易区间，从正负0.5%拓宽至正负1%，然后让人民币逐渐升值。

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