Forecast and Fit for Exchange Rate of Yen against Dollar Using GARCH Model

The turn in the euro/ dollar bellwether currency pair will have little to do with valuations and more to do with signals on interest rates from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.

作为领头羊的欧元兑美元汇率反转，与估值的关系不大，更多地是与美联储（fed）和欧洲央行（ecb）发出的利率信号有关。

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Exchange Rate of US Dollar, Inflation and Oil Price

美元汇率、通货膨胀与油价

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Since November 14, when Yoshihiko Noda called a general election, the yen has fallen 14 per cent against the dollar and the Topix has rallied by 30 per cent.

自去年11月14日野田佳彦（Yoshihiko Noda）宣布举行大选以来，日元兑美元汇率已下跌14%，Topix上扬30%。

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But it also reflects a rally in the dollar that has gained momentum in recent weeks as the US Federal Reserve nears the end of its quantitative easing programme and investors look to the prospect of US interest rates rising in 2015.

不过，欧元兑美元汇率下跌还反映出了美元的回升，后者近几周来表现强劲&美联储（Fed）的量化宽松计划即将告终，投资者则在关注美国在2015年加息的前景。

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But after the R/ S analysis test we found the noise of our exchange market is too small which means that market isn't efficient according to the behavioral finance theory.

然而在用R／S分析法对人民币对美元汇率进行分析之后我们发现：中国外汇市场噪声缺乏，根据行为金融理论的观点，我国外汇市场效率低下。

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Research on the Garch Model Based on Ant Colony Algorithm in the Forecast of the Rmb-Usd Exchange Rate

基于蚁群算法的GARCH模型的人民币&美元汇率预测研究

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The Hong Kong Monetary Authority was forced to step into the currency markets again yesterday as the Hong Kong dollar hit the limit of its trading band against its US counterpart.

香港金融管理局（HKMA）昨日被迫再度干预汇市，原因是港元兑美元汇率触及交易区间的上限。

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The data suggested that the Federal Reserve may not be so keen to cut US interest rates aggressively, and the dollar rallied a factor that should weaken commodity markets.

上述数据显示，美联储（fed）可能不会那么热衷于大幅降息，同时美元汇率有所反弹，这一因素应该会导致大宗商品市场走弱。

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The yen touched a three-month low of y97 against the dollar.

日元兑美元汇率触及1美元兑97日元的3个月低点。

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At one point the rouble hit a record low of 53.86 to the dollar-a move of 6.5 per cent, according to Reuters data-though it later pared some of its losses.

根据路透（Reuters）数据，卢布兑美元汇率一度触及1美元兑53.86卢布的创纪录低点，跌幅达6.5%，尽管随后收复了部分失地。

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You might start getting worried that the dollar might go down.

你就可能担心美元汇率会下降。

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The Chinese currency has appreciated by 7 per cent against the US dollar this year.

今年以来，人民币兑美元升值幅度达7%。

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This month the Chinese currency fell to its lowest level versus the dollar since 2012.

本月，人民币兑美元汇率跌至2012年以来的最低水平。

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The renminbi remains 15 per cent cheaper against the dollar than it was in 1993.

与1993年的水平相比，人民币兑美元仍贬值了15%。

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The currency has become more flexible and appreciated about 20 per cent against the dollar.

汇率弹性有所增强，人民币兑美元已升值约20%。

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It has only allowed the renminbi to appreciate minimally against the dollar this year.

今年迄今，中国仅允许人民币兑美元微幅升值。

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On balance, I expect the outcome to be a modest appreciation against the dollar.

总体而言，我预计结果将是人民币兑美元适度升值。

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In nominal terms, it has risen 31 per cent against the dollar since 2005.

自2005年以来，人民币兑美元名义汇率已上涨31%。

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China is likely to resume gradual appreciation against the dollar at some point this year.

中国很可能会在今年的某个时候，重启人民币兑美元逐步升值的进程。

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In August, the renminbi even depreciated slightly against the dollar.

今年8月，人民币兑美元甚至略有贬值。

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